Brevard job upswing still short of space program losses

Despite high-profile aerospace and aviation projects, Brevard lags nation in workforce forecast.

The unemployment rate after the end of the space shuttle program reached 11.4 percent, not 15 percent.
There are now 19,024 local people out of work.
Brevard lags behind nine metros in Florida. That includes Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Fort Myers, Pensacola, and Sarasota.
 
Even with a string of high-profile job wins on big aerospace and aviation projects, the Space Coast still has a long way to go to make up for the thousands of jobs lost to the shutdown of NASA's space shuttle program, according to a new study of employment projections.

Brazilian jet-maker Embraer is building a second assembly plant and Northrop Grumman is expanding its aerospace engineering operation, which together are expected to bring about 3,000 new high-paying jobs to a bustling aviation hub around Melbourne's airport in the next five years or so.

But a USA TODAY analysis of Economic Modeling Specialists International and Career Builder data shows a challenging job forecast for job seekers in Brevard County between now and 2017. Census, labor and other economic data studied by Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) and Career Builder show there will be little difference between the number of available jobs in the market in 2013 and what will be available in 2017.

In fact, EMSI analyzed economic data from the 125 largest largest metropolitian regions in the United States and predicted that Brevard would have the eighth-lowest rate of job creation.

"The end of the space shuttle program left a pretty deep crater in the economy," said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness. "A lot of the high-wage employment went away. The reality is that the situation remains difficult. The recovery will be a protracted and slow one."

By 2017, EMSI expects a 1.9 percent increase in the number of jobs as compared to 2013, which translates to 3,693 new jobs. Of those jobs, the EMSI projection estimates that 1,181 will be low-skill jobs which require no training, 1,230 will be middle-skill jobs requiring technical expertise but usually not a college degree, and 1,282 will be high-skill jobs which require a college degree.

That's not even close to the hiring surge necessary to help heal the Brevard economy. What's more, Brevard lags behind nine metros in Florida. That includes Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Fort Myers, Pensacola, and Sarasota.

Not everyone agrees with EMSI's projections, though.

In a 2013 survey by the Economic Development Commission of Florida's Space Coast, 90 percent of Brevard's manufacturers said that they plan to expand their local operations and increase local hiring in the near future.

Also, the unemployment rate following the end of the space shuttle program reached a high of 11.4 percent — not the 15 percent some predicted. It now stands at 7.1 percent. There are now 19,024 local people out of work, compared to 30,270 in February 2010, when the Space Coast's unemployment rate reached its peak.

"There was no other place in this nation that was as bloodied as we were by the recession, but we stood up and said we're going to survive this," said Lynda Weatherman, president and chief executive officer of the Economic Development Commission of Florida's Space Coast. "Everyone else was predicting that we would be obliterated, but we weren't, and we will continue to surpass expectations."

Michael Slotkin, an economics professor at the Florida Institute of Technology in Brevard, said Brevard was hit not only with the loss of thousands of space shuttle jobs, but also an implosion of the local construction industry when the housing market cratered during the so-called "Great Recession" of 2007-2009. Also hurting Brevard was a cutback on military spending due to sequestration.

Because Brevard is home to military contractors like Harris Corp. and others, sequestration cuts continue to ripple through the local economy.

"When you talk about the hits that this community took in the gut, when you realize the headwinds that stalled the economic recovery here, it's almost like someone tailor-made a formula to stymie economic development," Slotkin said.

Based on their calculations, EMSI predicts that Houston will lead the nation in terms of job creation, and that Detroit will rank dead-last, shedding more jobs than it creates. While Brevard is not expected to suffer from economic contraction, according to EMSI, its growth trajectory will pale by comparison to many other American communities.

For Brevard, another troubling prediction in the EMSI forecast is that despite a projected nationwide surge in the number of jobs available to middle-skill workers who lack a college degree but who have technical skills, that growth could bypass Brevard. Middle-skill workers are trained employees such as lab technicians, manufacturing workers and others who receive an hourly wage of $13 or higher.

Some Brevard job seekers say that they may have to move elsewhere to find work.

Mark Ailstock, a Rockledge aerospace engineer who was recently laid off, said that he loves the area and wants to stay, and that he is encouraged by the series of job interviews he has had in the past six weeks, but that ultimately, he will have to go wherever the job opportunities are.

"I'm bored and I'm eager to work. It's hard to stay motivated, but I find ways," he said.

For some job seekers, recent economic development projects have brought hope.

When Embraer completes its second jet assembly operation at Melbourne International Airport, it could mean more than a 1,000 high-wage jobs here. For Northrop Grumman, a leading defense contractor involved in hundreds of government programs, it expansion here could see more than 2,000 engineers working at Melbourne International by 2018.

And the expected job gains in aviation don't include projections for expected employment growth at Port Canaveral, which also has key future projects in the works.

For example, in June port officials and a company called GT USA, a unit of United Arab Emirates-based Gulftainer, signed a 35-year deal for the company to operate a cargo terminal at the port. Port officials said the deal could create 2,000 direct and spinoff jobs when fully operational, including 500 at the port itself. Gulftainer, officials said, planned on making a $100 million investment locally in infrastructure, equipment and staff.

This new investment could reverberate through other sectors of the economy and create spin-off employment in the retail and professional services sectors.

"I have a strong opinion that we are not going to go backwards," said Bob Coats, who oversees corporate business development at Lockheed Martin's Brevard operation. "I think the community writ large sees where we've been, having gone through the shuttle era, and that everyone wants to move forward. There's a real recognition that we need to diversify our economy."

Contact Kowarski at 321-242-3640 or ikowarski@floridatoday.com. Follow her on Twitter @IlanaKowarski.

Out of work?

Here are some job search pointers from Bill Becker, who teaches workshops at CareerSource Brevard, the local unemployment agency.

Focus on what makes you marketable and what skills you have to offer an employer. "Understand the needs of the employer," he said. "Don't get so caught up with what you've done in the past that you forget about what the employer is asking for."
Remember that you can use some skills in multiple types of jobs, and be flexible about your career. "Sometimes you need to look at your transferable skills, and focus on skills more than on job titles," he said.